The Global Diamond Market: Pressure, Restructuring, and Gradual Price Decline

For the diamond industry, 2025 was not a year of event-driven spikes but rather one of protracted transformation. The market finds itself in a situation where multiple factors simultaneously influence price and demand – and this pressure can no longer be ignored by jewelers, manufacturers, or laboratories.

One of the most discussed factors is tariffs and restrictions in key markets, particularly the United States. Externally, this appears as a tool of trade policy, but in reality, the consequences are broader: they affect logistics, traceability of origin, supply chains, and the final cost to the consumer. As a result, even players not formally “connected” to the U.S. market directly still feel the changes through global shifts.

At the same time, the confrontation between natural and synthetic diamonds continues – not as a conflict in the literal sense, but as competition between formats and meanings. Synthetics affect not only the sales of natural stones; they influence the market ideologically, forcing the industry to repeatedly answer the question: what exactly constitutes the value of a gemstone – its chemical formula, rarity, origin, or the emotional component?

Meanwhile, prices for natural diamonds are declining, albeit slowly and unevenly, with varying dynamics across sizes, characteristics, and other criteria. For the industry, this means a prolonged period of wait-and-see: the market understands that the old stability will not return, but a new model has yet to solidify.

Yet the main takeaway of the year sounds almost paradoxical: despite the pressure, debates, and competition, the natural diamond remains the world’s primary stone for the jewelry industry. It is still perceived as the fundamental symbol of a “genuine” piece of jewelry, status, and enduring meaning. No matter how the economy changes, the cultural and historical dominance has not shifted. Too many resources and efforts were once invested by De Beers in promoting natural stones for consumers to forget about them – and for the female half of society to cease desiring them.

Synthetics: Volume Growth, Price Decline, and Shifting Cultural Status

If the natural diamond in 2025 held its position as the primary “stone of meaning,” then the synthetic diamond has firmly established itself as the key technological breakthrough reshaping the market from within. Synthetics are becoming increasingly abundant. It is important not only that production rates are ramping up, but also that the supply structure is expanding: colored synthetics (including vividly colored varieties) are transitioning from rarity to commonplace. This affects the perception of colored gemstones overall: part of the demand is “shifting” from natural colored stones to laboratory-grown ones – especially where the buyer values visual impact over origin.

Prices for synthetic diamonds continued to decline in 2025, falling significantly in many segments. At the same time, an important boundary has emerged: the falling cost of synthetic stones is increasingly “bottoming out” at the cost of cutting. The stone as a material becomes cheaper, but the work of transforming it into a jewelry-quality gemstone remains costly and cannot approach zero. In other words, the market is arriving at a situation where the price of synthetics begins to reflect not the value of the mineral, but the cost of the production cycle and service chain.

The most interesting change, however, is not so much pricing as cultural. A growing number of experts note a trend: the synthetic diamond is beginning to be associated with costume jewelry – that is, with a product of fashion, seasonality, replaceability, and accessibility. This is a key point. It does not mean that synthetics will disappear – on the contrary, their presence will increase. But they are ceasing to compete head-to-head with natural diamonds at the level of status. Rather, a new fork is emerging: the natural diamond is about the value of rarity, origin, and tradition; the synthetic is about design, technology, and affordable sparkle.

Of course, this underscores the growing importance of origin diagnostics, proper terminology, and ongoing educational efforts – otherwise, the market will drown in ambiguities and consumer disappointment.

Growing Interest in Colored Gemstones and Rising Prices

One of the most notable global trends of 2025 is the growing interest in colored gemstones – and this applies to both the global market and Russia. The reasons are straightforward:

• fatigue with the “uniform” brilliance of diamonds;
• increasing demand for individuality;
• the influence of social media and visual culture (color sells faster than transparency);
• the limited availability of certain natural deposits and rough batches.

Against this backdrop, prices are naturally rising. Categories where three factors align are growing particularly actively: natural origin, a beautiful and “recognizable” color palette, and verifiable rarity.

In the laboratory, we observe the following trends:

• an increasing variety of treatment methods (heat treatment, diffusion, impregnation, various types of glass filling, etc.);
• increasingly complex diagnostic cases;
• the growing importance of expert reports (certificates) for colored gemstones in the market.

Russia: Import Substitution, Consumption Transformation, and Pressure on Mass-Market Jewelry

The Russian jewelry market continued to restructure in 2025. Against the backdrop of the exit of several Western brands, import substitution has intensified – and it manifests not only in the emergence of “analogues.” The market is searching for its own model, and Russian brands are increasingly distinguished not so much by name as by approach.

A notable trend of the year: Russian brands are offering not only finished jewelry but also unmounted stones – as a basis for custom orders. In this model, the buyer becomes a co-author of the piece, and the stone becomes the central focus of meaning.

At the same time, the market operates under advertising constraints: reduced access to traditional social media and advertising tools is changing marketing. For many brands, this means a shift from broad reach to:

• community-driven engagement;
• personal sales;
• expertise and trust;
• educational content.

The situation is also challenging for mass-market jewelry. Here, in addition to declining consumer purchasing power and rising gold prices, the influence of marketplaces is intensifying. Marketplaces are radically changing the supply-and-demand structure: buyers choose quickly and by image, while sellers are forced to compete on price. The jewelry sector has proven sensitive to the pressures of this trading model, and not all jewelers have been able to adapt to the new reality.

Sales of jewelry and gemstones on marketplaces carry increased risks: on one hand, buyers increasingly encounter misleading descriptions and “marketing characteristics”; on the other, reputable sellers are forced to expend more resources on verification, information packaging, returns, and complaint handling. Against this backdrop, gemological laboratory reports are becoming a means of protection and building trust – but also an additional cost.

Government Regulation: Standards, Laboratories, Market “Whitening” – and the Tension with Free Trade

In Russia, 2025 was marked by a gradual strengthening of state control over the precious metals, gemstones, and jewelry market. Below are the points relevant to gemstones:

In 2023, a new GOST standard for diamonds was approved. The diamond characteristics in this standard are generally aligned with international grading systems. In 2025, a package of amendments to this GOST was approved. However, the market has historically operated on Russian grading systems. Today, the diamond characteristics recorded in the GIIIS DMCC are exclusively Russian. The transition to the new GOST means that all market participants will have to evaluate all diamonds differently.

Starting March 1, 2026, three state laboratories are scheduled to begin operations. They will verify diamond characteristics according to the new GOST – specifically for diamonds imported into the Russian Federation from EAEU member countries. In November 2025, the Ministry of Finance approved the regulatory document “Order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation No. 165n dated November 17, 2025,” which defines the operation of these new laboratories. In addition to verifying diamond characteristics under the new GOST, the laboratories will also conduct diagnostics. That is, market participants will first import diamonds from EAEU countries, confirm their authenticity and characteristics, enter them into the GIIIS, and then send them to the state laboratories for verification. In effect, the characteristics are declared by the market participant, and the laboratory acts as the confirming party. This is a completely new area of activity, and it is still difficult to judge how it will all work in practice.

Against this backdrop, news of free trade agreements – first with the UAE, and then with India – appears particularly interesting. A contradiction in government regulation emerges: on one hand, stronger regulation and standards domestically; on the other, the activation of free trade agreements with certain countries. The result is that Russian jewelers face increasing difficulties from regulators, while at the same time, jewelry produced in the UAE or India is given a “green light.”

Gemological Conferences and Laboratories: Hybrid Formats, Ethics, and the “Coming of Age” of Gemology

2025 was also a significant year for the professional community: gemological conferences in Russia and worldwide are increasingly held in hybrid formats, combining scientific and practical themes. In October 2025, Moscow hosted the International Gemological Conference of the National Gemological Association, with participation from both Russian and international specialists. Abroad, more than a dozen gemological conferences were held in the past year. We are witnessing the substantive maturation of gemology as a field of knowledge. Whereas conferences were previously predominantly “about minerals and methods,” now, alongside research, the following topics are taking center stage:

• market transformation;
• regulation and standards;
• ethics, origin, and traceability;

marketing and communication (especially in the context of synthetics).

In other words, gemology is gradually gaining weight as an independent discipline situated at the intersection of:

• natural sciences,
• materials science,
• economics,
• aesthetics,
• and social meanings.

Against the backdrop of growing new types of synthetics, composites, and increasingly subtle treatment methods, the number of complex diagnostic cases in gemological laboratories continues to rise. An increasing number of situations require not only expert experience but also instrumental confirmation. Gemological diagnostics remains one of the key tasks of laboratories: determining precisely what we are dealing with – a natural stone, a synthetic, or a treated material. Requirements for expert competence are growing, and the use of instrumental research methods is becoming increasingly mandatory. The conventional “professional intuition” remains important but can no longer serve as the sole basis for a conclusion.

Laboratory reports – both Russian and international – are today a recognized sales tool. This applies not only to expensive jewelry but also to the mid-market segment. Consumers expect independent verification of characteristics, and sellers gain a clear and legally significant argument.

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